Gold experienced sharp volatility in late June 2026, affected by renewed US-Iran military clashes and concerns about Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening [1, 2]. On the weekend of June 27-28, missile and drone attacks between US and Iranian forces targeted military bases in the Gulf and shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating geopolitical tensions [2, 3]. These events pushed crude oil prices up about 2% on June 29, increasing inflation fears [4, 2, 5, 3].
Gold prices fluctuated throughout June 29, 2026, closing near $4020 per ounce after dropping around 0.9% earlier in the day but staying above $4000, indicating investor support at that level [1, 2, 6, 3]. Some sources reported slight variation in precise prices—spot gold ranged from $4020.68 to around $4096 depending on reporting time [1, 7, 3]. Silver prices also declined alongside gold, pressured by a stronger US dollar and growing expectations of Fed rate hikes [4, 5, 3, 8].
The volatility came amid data released in June showing robust US employment and persistent inflation, which increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue raising interest rates or maintain a hawkish stance [7, 6, 5, 8, 9]. The Fed’s target federal funds rate was set between 3.50% and 3.75% as of mid-June, with the market pricing a roughly 60% chance of another hike in September [5, 3]. “Inflation remains too high,” Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said, noting that core inflation pressures extend beyond energy prices [8]. J.P. Morgan’s Gregory Shearer added that the Fed’s hawkish tilt challenged gold’s bullish trend [9].
Despite pressure in late June, gold has risen more than 40% over the past year and about 18% over the last six months in US dollar terms; silver prices nearly doubled during that period [4]. However, gold faced continued selling pressure in the prior weeks, marking four straight weeks of declines, according to LKP Securities’ Jateen Trivedi [4]. Zaner Metals’ Peter Grant said the market remained highly sensitive to Middle East tensions and Fed hawkishness, which kept gold under sustained pressure [3].
Following an agreement reached on June 29, the US and Iran committed to a ceasefire and scheduled an emergency meeting in Doha on June 30 to discuss sovereignty and navigation issues in the Strait of Hormuz [1, 2]. This meeting will be a key near-term event in efforts to reduce tensions affecting commodity markets.
The next key event is the emergency US-Iran meeting in Doha today, June 30, 2026, expected to address peace and security in the strategic waterway that has fueled recent volatility in energy and precious metals prices [1, 2].
