The Malaysian Meteorological Department announced on August 18 that there is more than a 90% chance of a "very strong" or Super El Nino event occurring between October and December 2026. [1, 2, 3] Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip said, "The probability of El Nino reaching the very strong category between October and December 2026 is high, at more than 90 per cent, based on the latest forecasts issued by international climate models." [2]

The forecast reflects a significant upward trend in the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) observed since mid-2026. Sea surface temperatures are currently more than 1.8 degrees Celsius above the climatological average, indicating a strong warming of Pacific waters. [1, 2, 3] This combination signals one of the most extreme El Nino episodes on record, potentially matching or exceeding the severity of the 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 events. [1, 2, 3]

During the 1997-1998 El Nino, the highest temperature recorded in Malaysia was 40.1°C at Chuping Meteorological Station on April 9, 1998. [1, 2, 3] A comparable 39.3°C temperature was recorded at Batu Embun Meteorological Station on April 10, 2016, during the 2015-2016 event. [1, 2, 3]

Past Super El Nino events caused notably hotter and drier conditions, with substantial reductions in rainfall, particularly towards the end of the Northeast Monsoon and during the inter-monsoon period from February to May. [1, 2, 3] This year, temperature increases from February to May 2027 are expected to be more pronounced due to the combined effects of global warming and El Nino. [1, 2, 3]

The forecast also expects the strong El Nino to coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This will further reduce rainfall across the region by lowering moisture supply from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans, causing longer dry spells and hotter conditions in southern ASEAN countries including Malaysia. [1, 2, 3]

A positive IOD leads to cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia compared to the western Indian Ocean. This temperature difference reduces cloud formation and rainfall in Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia. [3]

The Malaysian Meteorological Department will closely monitor the evolving El Nino and IOD conditions, along with local weather and forest fire risks. [3]

The expected period for more pronounced temperature rises and reduced rainfall linked to the combined effects is February to May 2027. [1, 2, 3]