OPEC+ decided on September 6, 2026, to maintain its oil output policy unchanged for October 2026. The meeting involved seven core members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8].
This follows the completion in August 2026 of a phased rollback of the 1.65 million barrels-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. Production had increased in September after that rollback [1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7].
Despite higher quotas on paper, actual output remains well below target levels due to ongoing disruptions caused by the war in Iran and military conflicts near the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran conflict continues to impede oil exports through this strategic waterway, limiting OPEC+’s ability to influence global supply and prices [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8].
Jorge Leon, an energy analyst at Rystad Energy, said, "OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market. The group can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market" [1]. He added that market focus has shifted from monthly output adjustments to key discussions on 2027 production baselines. [6]
OPEC+ continues to maintain additional production cuts covering most of its 21 member countries, expected to last until the end of 2026 [1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7]. Before adjusting output further, the group plans to assess member nations’ production capacity and set the 2027 production baselines to determine quotas [1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7]. Detailed talks on 2027 baselines and quotas are expected later this year [1, 2, 3, 4, 7].
Analysts expect OPEC+ to pause any further output increases for the entire fourth quarter of 2026 [2, 3, 7]. The next meeting of the seven core OPEC+ members is scheduled for October 4, 2026, where further output decisions will be discussed [1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7].
Internal tensions within OPEC+ have increased following the UAE’s departure in May 2026 and rising US influence over Venezuelan reserves, adding to challenges in coordination [8].
