The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) released its Haze Outlook 2026 report on June 24, issuing a rare red alert for a high risk of severe transboundary haze in Southeast Asia for the rest of the year [1, 2, 3]. The peak danger period is expected between August and September 2026 [1, 4, 2, 3].
SIIA linked the heightened risk to a strong El Niño event forecast to cause hotter and drier conditions across Southeast Asia in late 2026. This will extend the dry season and increase fire susceptibility [1, 5, 4, 6, 7, 2, 3]. Around July or August, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is predicted to form which could intensify and prolong the dry and haze season into October [5, 6, 7, 2, 3].
The main sources of the haze remain forest and peatland fires across Indonesia, Malaysia, and parts of Brunei and Singapore [1, 4, 2, 3]. Increased demand for biofuels is driving land clearing and deforestation, often using fire-based methods that worsen haze [1, 5, 4, 2, 3]. Economic pressures such as rising fertiliser and fuel costs linked to global events like the Iran war are straining agricultural producers, potentially reducing budgets for fire prevention and encouraging fire use for land management [1, 5, 4, 2, 3].
Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto faces his first high-risk dry season amid these constraints. The government has strengthened forest fire response through an inter-agency Coordination Desk and improved monitoring and firefighting efforts [2].
SIIA chairman Simon Tay said, "The forecasts warn of a severe dry season, but we must not be fatalistic. There is much that can be done to prevent the worst and strengthen climate resilience, energy and food security, and regional cooperation" [1]. He also highlighted the need for sustainable practices across supply chains despite economic pressures, noting, "ASEAN needs to take greater ownership of this challenge as the region enters a potentially severe dry season and faces the longer-term impacts of climate change. Supporting solutions with adequate funding will be critical" [2].
SIIA associate director Khor Yu-Leng added, "Rising costs of fertiliser and fuel as a result of the Iran war could lead to unsustainable activity such as the use of fire rather than machinery to clear land and dispose of waste" [4]. She also warned that ongoing energy and commodity price pressures "could further strain food producers, pushing them towards cheaper and potentially unsustainable land-clearing practices" [3].
This is the second time since 2019 that SIIA has issued its highest red alert for haze risk, with the previous alert also occurring in an El Niño year in 2023 [1, 5, 4, 2, 3]. Past severe haze crises in 1997 and 2015 coincided with super El Niño and positive IOD events [5, 6, 7].
The red alert and forecasts highlight August to September 2026 as a critical window for haze risk management across Southeast Asia [1, 4, 2, 3].
