The population of the European Union, composed of 27 nations, currently stands at about 450.6 million people and is expected to reach its peak of approximately 453.3 million by 2029 before entering a slow, long-term decline [1, 2, 3]. By 2100, EU population projections show a drop to roughly 398.8 million, a decline of 11.7% compared to today, reaching levels last seen in the 1970s [1, 2, 3].
Life expectancy has risen steadily and reached 81.5 years at birth in 2024, reflecting improved health conditions across the bloc [1, 2]. By 2100, life expectancy could surpass 90 years for women and 86 years for men, further shaping demographic trends [1, 2].
Ageing is a defining factor: nearly one in five EU residents is currently aged 65 or older, but this share is set to rise to nearly one in three by 2050 [1, 2]. EU commissioner Dubravka Suica said, "We are living longer, healthier lives than ever before – one of our greatest achievements. But demographic change is reshaping our societies, our economies and our labour markets. We must act now to turn this transformation into an opportunity" [1].
An ageing population brings challenges including labour shortages, strained public finances, and increased pressure on care and education systems [1, 2, 3]. Around 20% of working-age Europeans are currently outside the labour force, with approximately 8 million young people neither in employment nor education or training [1]. To counter the effects of a shrinking workforce, the EU Commission stresses the need to boost productivity and reduce unemployment [1, 2, 3].
Migration is expected to partially offset demographic changes but cannot fully resolve the ageing problem [1, 3]. Meanwhile, the rise of the "silver economy"—markets focusing on goods and services for older citizens—is viewed as a beneficial economic opportunity amid ageing challenges [1, 2].
Life expectancy and demographic projections outline a future where the EU will face significant social and economic adjustments. The population peak in 2029 marks the pivotal moment before the onset of decline, making it critical for policymakers to respond promptly to the projected demographic shift [1, 2, 3].
