France remains No. 1 in the World Cup 2026 power rankings after a 3-0 win over Sweden in the round of 32, maintaining their dominant form [1, 2]. Spain rose one spot to No. 2 following an improved showing against Austria, with standout performances from Lamine Yamal and goalkeeper Unai Simón prompting coach Luis de la Fuente to call it "an almost perfect victory" [1]. Argentina slipped to No. 3 despite staying unbeaten and boasting the tournament's leading scorer, Lionel Messi, who has netted 7 goals so far [1, 2].
Mexico climbed three places to No. 4, benefiting from strong individual efforts and the home crowd advantage. Their round of 16 match against England will mark their last home game of the tournament [1]. Morocco surged four positions to No. 5 after pushing the Netherlands to extra time and winning on penalties, with head coach Mohamed Ouahbi saying, "I think Morocco has gained everybody’s respect now" [1]. Brazil dropped to No. 6 following a mixed performance versus Japan [1].
The round of 16 still features all three co-host nations—United States, Mexico, and Canada—each remaining in contention [2, 3]. The USA ended a 10-game losing streak against European opponents by beating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 to reach this stage [3]. Mexico also ended a 40-year drought of knockout round wins with their advancement [3].
There have been notable round of 32 upsets, including Paraguay eliminating Germany on penalties, Congo DR leading England for over an hour before losing, and Cape Verde pushing Argentina close to penalties [2]. In the Golden Boot race, Lionel Messi leads with 7 goals, followed by Kylian Mbappé with 6. Harry Kane and Erling Haaland each have 5 goals [2]. Mbappé said, "I did say that I wanted to enjoy this World Cup to the fullest" [1].
FIFA rankings, betting odds, and prediction markets show varying probabilities for the overall winner as they weigh different factors [3]. Power rankings published on July 4 reflected these shifts, with France, Spain, Mexico, and Morocco all moving up after round of 32 play [1, 3]. The final match of the World Cup is scheduled for July 19, with 15 days remaining from the time of the rankings [2].
